Shares of Bajaj Auto continued to drop, falling by more than 10 percent to Rs 10,414 in morning trading on October 17. This decline followed the company's report of lower-than-expected net profit for the second quarter. Bajaj Auto also reduced its sales growth forecast for two-wheelers in India to 5 percent, which is at the lower end of its earlier estimate of 5-8 percent.
For the second quarter of FY2024-25, the Pune-based company reported a 9 percent increase in standalone net profit, reaching Rs 2,005 crore, but this was below analysts' expectations. The Profit After Tax (PAT) grew from Rs 1,836 crore in the same quarter last year. Revenue for the July-September period rose 22 percent to Rs 13,127 crore, up from Rs 10,777 crore in the previous year.
Bajaj Auto doesn't impress
Citi has issued a 'sell' recommendation on Bajaj Auto, setting a target price of Rs 7,800 per share, which is a 33 percent drop from its last closing price of Rs 11,616. Citi explained that the company's Q2 performance was slightly below expectations due to a small shortfall in average selling prices (ASPs) and lower gross margins. Citi was also a bit surprised by the company's outlook on festive demand, though data from Vahan shows a 12 percent year-on-year increase in vehicle registrations.
Macquarie has a neutral stance on Bajaj Auto, with a target price of Rs 11,200. While the Q2 performance was in line with expectations, Macquarie was disappointed with the gross margins due to a higher share of new products. The brokerage noted a weaker-than-expected festive outlook.
Despite the lower-than-expected net profit, HSBC, Jefferies, and Morgan Stanley have all given positive recommendations, citing growth opportunities ahead.
HSBC, with a target price of Rs 14,000, says Bajaj Auto is catching up, holding a 30 percent market share, with electric vehicle (EV) penetration reaching 20 percent in the three-wheeler segment. This growth is driven by lower ownership costs and supportive regulations. HSBC believes that formalizing the e-rickshaw market, with Bajaj potentially launching a model, could drive further growth.
Jefferies, also with a 'buy' recommendation, is optimistic about continued improvements in exports. The firm predicts a 14 percent annual growth rate in volume from FY24 to FY27, driven by rising Indian two-wheeler demand and a recovery in exports. Jefferies also highlighted Bajaj’s market share gains in electric two-wheelers and its expansion of CNG bike production and capacity in Brazil.
Morgan Stanley remains 'overweight' on Bajaj Auto, noting that the company’s focus on maintaining current profit margins is a positive sign, though the growing presence of EVs could affect its product mix. HSBC’s target price of Rs 11,389 has already been surpassed.
Bajaj Auto reported strong growth in Latin American markets, with a 20 percent year-on-year increase, but faced a decline in African markets. The company expects better export performance in the third quarter compared to the second.
Bajaj is also expanding its operations in Brazil, increasing production at its Manaus plant from 20,000 to 35,000 units annually, supported by a Rs 84 crore investment in its Brazilian subsidiary.
Bajaj Auto shares have surged 70 percent since the beginning of the year.
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